Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 4.282509 5.072582 5.948302 6.988203 8.186515 9.521097 11.116917
2025-06-01 2.960827 3.980216 5.237760 6.890442 8.990892 11.555702 14.906944
2025-06-08 2.160575 3.242889 4.706509 6.800727 9.684749 13.475905 18.787073
2025-06-15 1.770696 2.918956 4.596257 7.170289 10.952514 16.224137 24.022795
2025-06-22 1.416397 2.546679 4.318446 7.214281 11.720743 18.330915 28.579583
2025-06-29 1.147845 2.237430 4.059969 7.213793 12.379857 20.306487 33.109452
2025-07-06 0.939501 1.976785 3.820588 7.183909 12.956577 22.180532 37.632677
2025-07-13 0.866237 1.942313 3.953327 7.782503 14.606526 25.868550 45.287029
2025-07-20 0.760172 1.818809 3.900074 8.036877 15.688815 28.724341 51.841756
2025-07-27 0.678107 1.725027 3.883229 8.346960 16.890466 31.871033 59.121356
2025-08-03 0.580106 1.573229 3.723485 8.355569 17.533775 34.101533 65.014291
2025-08-10 0.474228 1.376874 3.435160 8.061766 17.563642 35.234680 69.071078
2025-08-17 0.377449 1.180083 3.115045 7.665388 17.369485 35.986312 72.602750
2025-08-24 0.317028 1.061517 2.950222 7.577399 17.784809 37.916687 78.463754
2025-08-31 0.266602 0.955988 2.795417 7.486165 18.178949 39.837594 84.461720
2025-09-07 0.247273 0.936725 2.851530 7.890906 19.676315 44.046360 95.144152
2025-09-14 0.215155 0.867979 2.765452 7.939653 20.391554 46.737352 103.057867
2025-09-21 0.185956 0.799544 2.666265 7.939424 20.992626 49.238721 110.772760
2025-09-28 0.160053 0.733911 2.561289 7.906992 21.512030 51.606345 118.382011
2025-10-05 0.157239 0.752742 2.707378 8.558596 23.723123 57.750600 134.158644
2025-10-12 0.144025 0.727381 2.715031 8.835350 25.052117 62.077845 146.424570
2025-10-19 0.133511 0.709584 2.743041 9.172592 26.564335 66.918623 160.082615
2025-10-26 0.116986 0.660504 2.660339 9.181955 27.249921 69.960207 170.085614